The 2025 tensions on US–Mexico trade: tariffs, inspections, and cargo thefts

In 2025, trade between the United States and Mexico held up… but it ceased to be “predictable.” The flows remain strong and Mexico retains its role as a major trading partner, yet supply chains have had to cope with a year marked by political upheavals, increased controls, and rising security risks.

First marker: the return of a climate of tariff threat. Even when some exchanges remain covered by existing frameworks, the uncertainty around new taxes (or their extension to sensitive categories) has been enough to disrupt decisions: sourcing, contracts, stock levels, and “nearshoring” trade-offs. In operations, it’s not just a matter of cost, but also the ability to keep commitments in a changing environment.

The second factor is the pressure on compliance. The authorities are intensifying the fight against practices of undervaluation, documentary fraud, or circumvention of rules of origin. For shippers, freight forwarders, and brokers, documentation is no longer an administrative formality: it becomes a matter of governance, internal audit, and investment (process, control, traceability).

The third marker—and the one that worries the field the most: the explosion of cargo crime on certain corridors. Organized channels target high-value goods (electronics, consumer goods, auto parts…), transforming “security” risk into business risk: delays, disruptions, incidents, renegotiations, and increased customer demands. In this context, security is no longer limited to locks and seals: it becomes a strategy (routing, choice of hubs, visibility, emergency procedures).

As 2026 approaches, the message is clear: cross-border trade is entering a more compliance-driven and risk-aware phase, where speed alone is no longer enough. The operators who will perform well are those capable of simultaneously absorbing regulatory uncertainty, operational constraints, and security threats—without breaking the customer promise.

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