Tariffs and Middle East tensions keep pressure on aluminum prices

Aluminum prices in the United States remain under pressure in 2026 as tariffs on key metals continue and geopolitical tensions introduce further uncertainty into global supply chains.

The U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in February to invalidate tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act did little to change the outlook for metal packaging manufacturers. The ruling did not affect the longstanding Section 232 tariffs on aluminum and tinplate steel, which remain in place.

In addition, a separate 10% global tariff introduced by the Trump administration does not apply on top of the existing 50% duties under Section 232, meaning the structure of tariffs affecting the industry remains largely unchanged.

Executives across the can manufacturing sector have already warned that tariffs will continue to influence costs throughout 2026. Companies such as Crown Holdings and Ball Corporation indicated during recent earnings calls that aluminum prices remain elevated and that some additional tariff costs are expected this year.

One indicator of the pressure on the market is the Midwest Premium, a benchmark measure of aluminum costs in the United States. In late January it exceeded $1 per pound for the first time, reflecting stronger domestic price increases compared with global markets.

Research from the University of Cincinnati shows that canned food products experienced some of the sharpest grocery price increases toward the end of 2025.

The Can Manufacturers Institute (CMI) believes consumers may face even higher prices this year. President Scott Breen warned that the industry expects further increases in 2026 due to the persistently high Midwest Premium.

Tinplate steel tariffs are another concern for manufacturers. According to CMI, U.S. producers rely heavily on imports for this material, with nearly 80% of tinplate steel supply sourced from abroad.

Breen said the industry is working with the U.S. administration to explain the impact of tariffs on domestic manufacturers and to explore solutions that could support both domestic production and targeted tariff relief.

Meanwhile, the conflict involving Iran and the wider Middle East is adding another layer of uncertainty to global metal markets. The Aluminum Association noted that the region accounts for around 21% of unwrought aluminum imports and 13% of wrought aluminum imports, making any disruption in the region a potential risk to supply chains.

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