Middle East shipping disruption strengthens U.S. position in LNG exports

The current disruption in the Middle East is reinforcing the strategic position of the United States in the global liquefied natural gas market, at a time when LNG projects across the country are also fueling sustained demand for breakbulk and project cargo transportation.

Roughly one-fifth of global LNG flows pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a corridor now heavily affected by conflict and vessel attacks. At the same time, the United States — already the world’s largest LNG exporter — is preparing for a major expansion phase, according to recent analyses from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The EIA expects U.S. LNG export capacity to nearly double by 2031. The country currently operates eight export terminals, and several new projects are progressing rapidly.

In 2025, developers signed sale and purchase agreements covering 5.2 billion cubic feet per day of LNG from future export facilities, the highest annual volume since 2022. These agreements are critical because they are generally needed to secure final investment decisions on new terminal construction.

Last year, four major U.S. LNG projects reached final investment decision: the first phase of Woodside Louisiana LNG, CP2, and the second phase of the Rio Grande and Port Arthur projects. Together, these developments represent 7.2 Bcf/d of LNG export capacity under construction and are expected to begin operations between 2029 and 2031.

According to Michael Mørland, Atlantic project cargo director at G2 Ocean, the expansion of LNG production capacity in the U.S. has already generated major breakbulk and project cargo volumes over the past decade, and that trend is expected to continue well into the next one. He also pointed to larger production units, continued capacity expansion and new technologies linked to energy demand from AI data centers and shifts in the U.S. power mix.

However, he does not expect the current Middle East disruption to change final investment decisions on new U.S. LNG projects in the near term. LNG megaprojects are highly capital-intensive and involve long lead times, while project cargo sourcing for these developments is generally not concentrated in the Middle East. In his view, any real change in cargo movement patterns would likely take six to 18 months to appear because of the long timelines involved in manufacturing and contracting project cargo.

The outlook for U.S. gas production also remains strong. The EIA forecasts an average of 120.8 Bcf/d in 2026, up 2%, followed by further growth to 122.3 Bcf/d in 2027.

In parallel, U.S. developers plan to add 6.3 gigawatts of gas-fired power generation capacity in 2026, with more than 80% of those projects concentrated in Texas, Oklahoma, Ohio, Tennessee and Florida.

Edwin Peh, project cargo director for Pacific and global capital projects at G2 Ocean, said the company is already receiving inquiries linked to these gas-fired developments and has moved turbines and generators for power plant projects. Still, he believes it is too early to identify any direct cargo shift caused by Middle East disruptions, though market participants are watching bunker prices, insurance costs and possible transit-time increases closely.

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