Iran conflict drives volatility in air cargo rates

The escalation of the Iran conflict is already having a visible impact on global air cargo markets, according to newly released data from CargoAi.

Matt Petot, chief executive of CargoAi, said disruptions affecting Middle Eastern operations and airspace routing are tightening capacity across several important trade lanes. The pressure is significant because carriers in the region play a central role in global cargo connectivity, linking Asia, Europe, Africa and the Americas.

The latest figures reflect that strain. CargoAi said rates are up 22% on Europe-Middle East routes, 12% between Asia and North America, and 9% between Europe and Asia. At the same time, some markets are either flat or slightly softer as flows begin to rebalance, including North America-Europe, which is down 9%, and Asia-Europe, which is down 1%.

The conflict is also driving oil prices higher, which is expected to feed through into increased fuel surcharges in the coming weeks and add further upward pressure to airfreight costs worldwide.

In that kind of environment, CargoAi argues that real-time visibility has become critical. The company said users of its platform can track market changes live through continuously updated rate data and operational intelligence. Petot said that in 2026, relying on traditional data sets that are one month old is no longer effective because the market is now moving far too quickly.

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