Diesel: 8th week of decline, but market signals become nervous again

The reference price of diesel used to calculate a large portion of fuel surcharges continues its decline, recording an eighth consecutive week of decrease. On paper, it’s a welcome respite for road transport and logistics players, as fuel remains one of the most sensitive items in operating costs.

But the market is also sending another message: the trend might not continue so easily. While the fundamentals had been rather bearish (unfavorable supply/demand balance), low-sulfur diesel contracts showed a rapid rebound over a few sessions. In clear terms, the “macro” decline is indeed there, but nervousness is returning.

Geopolitical factors weigh in the equation. Traders closely monitor the risks of supply disruption in the Middle East, and more broadly anything that could affect oil flows. Even without a confirmed disruption, the mere rise in risk is enough to heat up prices in the futures markets.

For logisticians, the operational reading is straightforward: fuel surcharges may remain under pressure in the short term, but a sudden turnaround is not impossible if tensions intensify. In other words, a favorable period… but to be managed with caution, especially on contracts and budgets for 2026.

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