China replaces US barrels with Canada: new impact on tanker routes

The geography of oil is shifting, and shipping feels it immediately. According to analyzes reported by BIMCO, Chinese crude oil imports from the United States would have collapsed in 2025, while those from Canada would have jumped dramatically. This shift is not limited to a simple game of suppliers: it changes the average distance traveled by cargoes and, therefore, the demand for ships by segment.

The main driver on the Canadian side is logistics: the ramp-up of an export corridor connecting the oil fields of Alberta to an export terminal on the Pacific coast, facilitating shipments to Asia. Once at sea, the flows are more on Aframax-sized units, adapted to these routes and constraints. Consequence: less “long haul” from the Gulf of the United States, which reduces the structural advantage of very large tankers on certain rotations.

In parallel, official Chinese figures indicate an increase in imported volumes, but the details are more nuanced: part of the increase would be related to stock building, which can mask underlying demand that is less dynamic. And for 2026, forecasts for increased Chinese consumption remain modest, leaving a key question for shipowners: will growth be driven by volumes, route optimization, or a recomposition of origins?

For maritime, it’s a textbook case: a change in onshore infrastructure can reshape offshore markets by redistributing value among Aframax, Suezmax, and VLCC.

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