Pacific spot rates drop just before contract season

Against the usual early-year scenario, spot rates from Asia are falling sharply even as the annual negotiation season between shippers and carriers enters its decisive phase. Traditionally, the approach of the Lunar New Year is accompanied by a price increase aimed at strengthening the carriers’ bargaining power. This time, the market is mainly discussing… how far the decline can go.

On the transpacific route to the West Coast of the United States, levels significantly lower than recent benchmarks are circulating in the ecosystem, fueling the idea that pre-Lunar New Year demand has been more diffuse than expected. Result: the rate support strategy relies less on tariff announcements and more on capacity management, with an increase in blank sailings scheduled over several weeks.

For shippers, the signal is twofold. On one hand, the tariff relaxation can improve the supply cost in the short term. On the other hand, the increase in flight cancelations, sometimes late, creates an operational risk: departure delays, domino effects on connections, congestion, and extended lead times. The market thus enters a paradoxical period where the drop in prices can be accompanied by a “hidden cost” in reliability and supply chain visibility.

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