Air cargo: a solid January, but signs of fragility behind the numbers

The air freight market starts 2026 with a paradox: January’s performance is generally considered positive, but a closer look reveals volatility and areas of risk. The analysis highlights a sensitive point: the growth driven by e-commerce could evolve, and any player too exposed to “platform” volumes could face rapid adjustments if demand normalizes or if trade policies tighten.

In this context, the central question becomes that of the capacity/demand balance. If the volumes hold, profitability will depend more on capacity discipline, yield management, and the ability to absorb peaks (seasonality, commercial events, periods of tension). The article also emphasizes that operators will need to monitor regulatory and tariff developments, as they can reconfigure the geography of flows departing from Asia.

For freight forwarders and shippers, the message is clear: 2026 will not be determined solely by “more volume,” but by the quality of anticipation (network, capacity security, customs agility, and solution diversification).

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