Airfreight: rates hold, but the return of capacity limits the increase

The air freight market is going thru a transition phase where several factors overlap and blur the reading of trends. On one hand, demand is strengthening as seasonal and commercial peaks approach, with flows sensitive to the calendar (particularly around time-sensitive shipments). On the other hand, an inverse dynamic is cooling down the usual price frenzy: capacity is increasing, which acts as a lid on rate hikes.

In several corridors, freight forwarders are observing a “controlled” tension: shippers still accept firm tariff levels to secure space, but the prospect of a more abundant supply reduces the likelihood of an extreme scenario. Operators also mention changes in arbitrage between belly capacity and freighters, with adjustments that quickly impact quotations.

In the end, the message sent to the market is clear: rates are not collapsing, but the upward mechanism no longer has free rein. For shippers, the period requires a more refined strategy: book early when urgency demands it, but closely monitor the windows where supply eases, in order to avoid paying an unnecessary premium.

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